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Size MattersBy Eric Utley
TheFXmarkets.com
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The currency market is full of benefits and
opportunities. It’s the most liquid market in the world. Trades take place 24
hours per day, six days a week. Breaking news often inspires dramatic and
potentially lucrative moves in the market. And there are many dozens of
different currency pairs to trade among which you can always find a few good
set-ups.
But of the many benefits of the currency market,
perhaps the least understood and certainly the most misused is leverage. The
fantastic amount of leverage available in the currency market is a potentially
huge hazard if you don’t understand how to manage it. The fact is most new
currency traders are set-up to fail from the onset of their currency trading
careers. The reason: leverage!
All of the marketing literature that you read
concerning currency trading touts the large amounts of leverage available. You
can find 100:1 or even 200:1 at most dealers. Some currency dealers even offer
up to 400:1 leverage!
Leverage
We must first understand what leverage is before
trying to figure out how to effectively use it in the currency market.
Think of a lever when you’re wrapping your head
around the concept of leverage. Imagine a man, his name is Bill Greenback. He’s
holding a long pole at one end with the opposite end of the pole resting under
an automobile. The pole sits on a pivot between Bill and the automobile. Bill is
unable to even budge the automobile under normal circumstances. But he can
actually lift two tires of the automobile off the ground with the benefit of the
lever that he is using.
Leverage in the physical world is moving an
object, usually a very large and heavy object, with proportionately less effort
and energy.
Leverage in the financial world works the same
way. The difference is that instead of lifting something heavy, the leverage is
controlling money, in some cases a lot of money, with only a little bit of cash
down.
Leverage takes many forms in the financial world,
even in everyday life. In fact, a mortgage is probably the most common form of
leverage that people use. A mortgage uses a small amount of money to control a
proportionately huge sum of money.
How Much Is Too Much?
It just so happens that Bill Greenback is in the
market for a new house. He’s 40 years old, married with two kids, and a
successful software engineer who earns a nice six figure salary.
Bill is shopping for a house in the $500,000
range, and plans to put some money down to bring the monthly payment to $3,000.
Bill understands that he’s getting a pretty good deal, being able to control
half a million dollars with only a fraction of that sum being paid upfront. Of
course Bill knows that he must eventually repay the entire amount, plus
interest, and make each monthly payment on time.
Bill knows that he can easily afford the $3,000
monthly payment. His take home pay after taxes each month is $8,000, so Bill
figures that he can afford the mortgage payment and still have plenty remaining
each month to live a comfortable life.
Bill and his wife find a splendid 4,000 square
foot house, in a nice neighborhood, with a three-car garage, and a spacious
backyard all for $500,000. They think it’s a good fit.
Bill and his wife are a few days away from
submitting an offer when they decide to take the family on a picnic to a nearby
lake. Arriving at the destination, Bill sees a house, more like a mansion, going
up for sale on the shore of the lake. The place is perfect! It’s a whopping
7,000 square feet, sports a four-car garage, and includes an in-house theater.
To top it off, the giant back deck overlooks the lake.
Bill, his wife, and the kids must have it. They
decide on the spot to pull the trigger and offer full asking price.
There’s only one problem: the house costs a cool
million. The mortgage on the place is $6,000 a month. But the family
rationalizes that it can cut back on the gift giving, take fewer vacations,
drive their old cars a little longer, and eat out less often. With these cuts,
Bill figures, he can afford the $6,000 a month payment. Plus, Bill remembers
that he’s up for a raise this year.
The Future is Unknown
Six months after moving in, the family is happier
than they have ever been. The kids make many new friends, and Bill and his wife
sip a glass of wine every night on the back deck, watching the sun set over the
lake.
One day on the way to work, Bill notices a
strange sound coming from the engine of his sedan. He pulls over to the side of
the road, pops the hood, and sees smoke billowing from somewhere below. A trip
in the tow truck to the local mechanic finds Bill facing a tough decision: pay
to rebuild the engine or scrap the car and buy a new one. Unfortunately, Bill’s
savings account isn’t as big as it was last year, so he decides to shell out
three grand to have the engine rebuilt.
The engine blowing up is not seen as a horrific
event by Bill, but it does set him back about two months of salary, ex-mortgage
payment. Bill figures that he can drop his cable and save $50 a month to
compensate for the mishap with the car.
The stress at home builds when Bill discovers
that his oldest daughter needs braces. He didn’t even consider the possibility.
What’s more, because of rising health care costs, Bill’s employer doesn’t offer
dental coverage. So Bill has to foot the entire cost out of pocket, and the
dwindling savings account starts to weigh heavily on his mind.
Bill and his wife are starting to worry, but
decide to cut back further, at least until Bill’s raise comes through at the end
of the year.
Then tragedy strikes: unusually heavy rains cause
the lake level to rise, flooding Bill’s basement. The clean-up costs are huge:
50 grand. Bill never even thought about the possibility of a flood. And he
doesn’t know how he’s going to pay the repair costs.
After much deliberation, Bill and his wife decide
to take out a second mortgage, using the proceeds to pay for the clean-up costs.
Bill and his wife are banking on the raise to help payoff the second mortgage,
and get back on track.
But then the seemingly impossible happens: Bill
loses his job. The software company that employs Bill has seen an abrupt slump
in sales, and has to layoff 25 percent of its staff. Unfortunately, Bill’s job
is part of the reduction.
Bill receives a small severance of $50,000, which
gets the family through six months. Bill is unable to find another job during
his six months of unemployment because of the slowdown in the software industry.
He decides to enter into bankruptcy and start over.
From Real Life to Trading Life
The evolution of Bill’s financial demise is not
unlike the misfortune found by far too many new currency traders, who blow-up
their accounts only to start over from scratch or leave the market altogether.
Bill’s bankruptcy and the blow-up of a currency trader’s account are caused by
the same mistake: overleveraging. It’s an easy mistake to make, especially in
the currency market, where the prospects of huge profits oftentimes blind new
traders to the potential perils of leverage.
The perils of leverage are losses, specifically
multiple losses. Bill’s losses are in the forms of real life events like
healthcare costs, natural disasters, and unemployment. Everyone faces these
potential losses to varying degrees. But it’s nearly impossible to predict these
future risks which, if realized, become losses. These losses, however, are
manageable so long as dangerous levels of leverage are not involved.
In the currency market, seemingly random events
occur all of the time. These events can catch a trader off guard and cause
losses. But the losses are manageable so long as excessive amounts of leverage
are not applied.
Where Bill has to deal with a broken down car, a
currency trader might be caught by surprise from a central bank that decides to
raise interest rates. Where Bill faces a surprise from his daughter who needs
braces, a currency trader might wake up in the morning to discover that a
government labor report causes a huge swing in a position. A currency trader
might even face catastrophe when a country decides to devalue its currency.
There are many risks to currency traders, risks
that are manageable with the appropriate amount of leverage. Some of the bigger
risks include:
Devaluation
War and terrorism
Central bank rate decisions
Volatile commodities markets
Government economic reports
Burgeoning current account deficits
Political disruptions such as elections and coups
Any of these risks, or combinations of these
risks, can strike at any time. These risks might even strike consecutively and
in short order. They can lead to ruin if a trader is over-leveraged.
De-leverage
The defense against these risks is de-leveraging.
The path to long-term survival, and ultimately profitability, in the currency
market is through de-leveraging. Dialing down the leverage in your currency
account will help to mitigate the many risks and keep you solvent so that you
can be around for the times when making money is easy.
Forget about putting all of your account equity
at risk in one single trade. Forget about worrying if you can meet a margin call
or if you face liquidation. Forget about trying to earn 500 percent this year.
Instead, align yourself with the reality of the currency market and start taking
full advantage of all of the opportunities. Start treating the currency market
as a viable investment arena. Use the appropriate amount of leverage in your
currency trading and you’ll be that much closer to long-term survival and
account growth.
Eric Utley is a professional trader and
contributor to www.profitingwithforex.com.
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